當前位置: 首頁 > 新聞資訊 > 毛振華:宏觀調控需兼顧中長期目標

毛振華:宏觀調控需兼顧中長期目標

发布人:中诚信     发布时间:2019-06-25     浏览次数:2110次

6月25日,由乐八彩票平台与中国诚信(亚太)信用評級有限公司共同举办的以“中国信用:经济变革与信用分化”为主题的2019年中信用展望研讨会在香港举行。中诚信集团创始人、董事长,中诚信国际首席經濟學家毛振华教授在会上发表了题为《宏观调控需兼顾中长期目标》的主旨演讲,提出虽然宏观调控以熨平短期波动为目标,但政策调整过于关注短期目标会干扰到中长期目标的实现,建议短期宏观调控仍需加大对中长期目标的关注。

On June 25th, the 2019 China Credit Outlook Forum, cohosted by China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd. (abbreviated as “CCXI”)and China Chengxin (Asia Pacific) Credit Rating Co., Ltd. (abbreviated as“CCXAP”) was held in Hong Kong. The theme of the Forum is “China Credit Market:Economic Reform and Credit Differentiation”. Dr. Mao Zhenhua, Founder and Chairman of China Chengxin Group and the Chief Economist of CCXI, delivered a keynote speech-- “Macro-economic Control should take into account the medium-/long-term economic development goals”. He proposed that although to smooth short-termeconomic fluctuations is the objective of Macro-economic Control, nevertheless,short-term objectives may weigh on medium-/long-term economic development andits sustainability. He suggests that China’s macro-economic control shouldre-analyze the situations and rebalance its priorities to take into account the medium-/long-term economic development goals.

毛振華指出,2016年以來我國宏觀政策經曆了多次調整,大致可以分爲三個階段:2016年下半年至2017年,宏觀調控以防風險爲重心,2018年隨著中國經濟下行壓力加大和中美貿易沖突加劇政策再度“變中求穩”,對穩增長的關注加大,2019年宏觀政策在延續穩增長基調同時也出現微調,4月政治局會議重提結構性去杠杆。

Mao pointed out that, since 2016, China’s macroeconomic policies went through multiple rounds of adjustments, which can be roughly divided into three stages: from the second half of 2016 to 2017, the focus of Macro-economic Control was “risk preventions”; in 2018, as downward pressure increases on China’s economy, the intensified Sino-U.S. trade tensions shifted the priority of China’s Macro-economic Control polices to “stable growth”; in 2019, certain fine tunings appeared, departing from the lasting theme of “steady growth”, and in April, the meeting of the Political Bureau brought up “structural de-leveraging” again.

毛振華分析,2016年下半年至2017年以防風險、去杠杆爲重心的宏觀調控政策帶動杠杆率增長邊際放緩,宏觀風險有所緩釋,但去杠杆政策也帶來了一些負面影響:首先,去杠杆節奏過快、力度過大,監管踩踏導致金融市場波動加大;其次,去杠杆基調下信用明顯收縮,企業信用風險尤其是民營企業信用風險加速暴露;再次,去杠杆、嚴監管也在一定程度上加劇了經濟下行壓力。

Mao analyzed that, from the second half of 2016 to2017, the macro-regulations, with the focus on risk prevention and de-leveraging, led to a marginal slowdown in leverage growth, and,consequently, in macro risks. However, de-leveraging policies have downsides.Firstly, de-leveraging came too fast and too strong. Overlapping supervision measures have led to increasing volatility in the financial market. Secondly,credit shrunk significantly, while corporate, especially private enterprise,credit risk exposed at an accelerated speed. Thirdly, de-leveraging and tightening regulation increased downward pressure on the economy, to a certain extent.

毛振華同時認爲,2018年以來政策對穩增長的關注加大,帶動經濟有所回穩,但穩增長政策依然存在一些負面作用:一方面,從目前來看“穩增長”依舊沒有擺脫依靠基建和房地産的窠臼,長遠來看不利于中國經濟的結構轉型與調整;另一方面,宏觀基本面的回暖在一定程度上以債務的攀升爲代價。根據中誠信國際的測算,2019年一季度杠杆率增幅明顯快于2016-2018年整個季度增速。其中,非金融企業部門杠杆率由降轉升,居民部門、政府部門杠杆率繼續攀升。

Mao also pointed out that, since 2018, the policy has increased its focus on steady growth, which has stabilized the economy.However, steady growth policies also have negative effects. On the one hand,for the time being, the economy was not able to cast off the old formula of“infrastructure + real estate” in its struggle to maintain “steady growth”; in the long-run, they are an opposite force for China’s structural adjustments. Onthe other hand, the recovery of the economy’s fundamentals was partly at the expense of rising debt. According to CCXI research, the increase in leverage inthe first quarter of 2019 is significantly faster than that during 2016-2018.Especially, the leverage ratio of non-financial corporate sectors start to riserather than drop in before, while the leverage ratio of the residential sectorand government departments continued on their path upward.

毛振華提出,雖然宏觀經濟政策被理解爲以“熨平短期經濟波動”爲主要任務,但短期政策調整也必須考慮長期目標,需要在判斷當時所處的經濟增長階段和發展周期的前提下來選擇合適的短期政策。

Mao believed that although to “smooth short-term economic fluctuations” is a major task for Macro-economic Control, nevertheless,short-term policy adjustments should take into account medium-/long-termobjectives. He suggested that a political decision should be made under aproper understanding of the country’s current phase of economic growth, and current phase in the economic cycles.

在外有貿易戰、內有結構性風險的背景下,宏觀政策一方面需要理性應對中美沖突,爲中國經濟長遠健康發展創造較爲穩定的外部環境,但更爲重要的是,宏觀政策要保持中長期穩定,國內宏觀調控政策要更著眼長遠,兼顧中國經濟的長遠健康發展的長期目標,減少短期政策調整頻率,注重系統性風險的防範,堅定不移地采取措施逐步化解經濟運行中的結構性風險。在具體政策上,要提高政策導向和政策工具的可預期性,政府通過保持政策的連續性對市場的各個部門提供更多的穩定政策支持,減少由于個別事件所引起的宏觀經濟政策上的大幅調整。從當前來看,較爲可行的政策選擇是穩健或者穩健偏緊的貨幣政策與更加積極的財政政策的組合。

Against the background of external trade tensions and internal structural risks, macro policies need to rationally deal with Sino-U.S.conflicts and create a relatively stable external environment for the long-termsound development of China's economy. Priority of macro-regulation should be maintaining long-term economic stability and growth. Domestic Macro-economic Control should take a wider and longer perspective, by taking into account medium-/long-term goals, while reducing the frequency of short-term policy adjustments. At the same time, policymakers should be vigilant against systematic risks in the economy, and firmly adapt measures to resolve them systematically. To be more specific, government shall take the following measures: improving the predictability of policy orientation and policy tools; providing more stable policy to support various sectors by maintaining the predictability and continuity of policies;limiting the usage of macro-regulation adjustments in dealing with separate events; and currently, a combination of a stable (toward tight) monetary policy plus a more active fiscal policy is preferable in terms of macroeconomic policy options.


热门关键词:乐八彩票app 乐八彩票最新消息 乐八彩票下载 乐八彩票网 乐八彩票网址 乐八彩票版本大全 乐八彩票手机版 乐八彩票官方版 乐八彩票平台 乐八彩票主页 乐八彩票开奖直播 乐八彩票下载软件 八克拉彩票 有骗局吗 乐八彩票注册 乐八彩票 官方推广码 乐八彩票注册登录 乐八彩票走势图 八号彩票是不是真实的 乐八彩票官网 乐八彩票登陆 乐八彩票我的账号
友情链接:百度百科| 中国新闻网| 网易博客| 新浪| hao123